Estimate on October 15, 2021 Forecast for October 29, 2021
People actively infected: 66,062 43,863
People actively infected and infectious: 36,122 24,215
New people infected on this day: 4,073 2,621
People vaccinated on this day: 4,289 5,464
New people infected in prior 7 days: 31,252 20,249
People vaccinated in prior 7 days: 39,169 40,357
People infected (cumulative): 3,941,952 3,988,628
People vaccinated (cumulative): 5,270,371 5,356,550
People vaccinated include only those receiving 2nd dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or the single dose of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, and are an estimate based on reported values from vaccines administered by NC Providers and the Federal Long Term Care Program; The short term forecast assumes a future vaccination rate based on the most recent 14-day rate

This website provides up-to-date estimates and future forecasts of SARS-CoV-2 infections, COVID-19 cases, and (coming soon) COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths in North Carolina. The models were developed and are maintained by researchers at UNC Chapel Hill and North Carolina State using data from North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services (NCDHHS), with some past data curated by The Raleigh News & Observer, WRAL News, and the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy.

We are attempting to update our estimates every day and are always working to improve our models. As new data are released, we integrate it into our current estimates and future forecasts; the most recent update used data from October 15, 2021.1 The most recent large changes in our model were on January 8th, February 4th, March 25th, July 9th, and September 1st 2021 when we added temporal breakpoints to account for the changes in transmission around Thanksgiving, New Years Day, the easing of statewide social distancing measures, and the delta variant surge; our most recent model update incorporated the vaccinated population. The table shows a summary of our most current estimates and 2-week forecasts, and the graph below shows our daily model estimates of the number of North Carolina residents actively infected with SARS-CoV-2 (split by people who are infectious and not infectious).2 Visit our SEIR model, Hospitalization model, Summary, and Timeline pages for more information.

Number of people actively infected with SARS-CoV-2 (model estimates)

  1. Please note that all values presented are subject to uncertainty and the assumptions in our model. They are likely to change as we incorporate more data and improve our model. For more information on process for updating our model, please see our SEIR and Hospitalization modeling details pages.↩︎

  2. People who are infected with SARS-CoV-2 are not immediately infectious (able to transmit the virus). An infected person goes through an incubation period where they cannot transmit the virus to another person. However, after the incubation period, an infected person can transit the virus. It is important to note that the infectious period can begin prior to a person showing symptoms (this is why people who look and feel healthy are able to spread the virus). See NPR Goats and Soda’s “Essential Vocab For COVID-19: From Asymptomatic To Zoonotic” to learn even more!↩︎