NC COVID-19 provides up-to-date estimates and future forecasts of SARS-CoV-2 infections, COVID-19 cases, and (coming soon) COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths in North Carolina. The models (and this site) were developed and are maintained by Paul Delamater with help from Rachel Woodul and guidance from Julie Swann. We created this site largely because we were unable to locate information about SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 in North Carolina that we thought was important for understanding past, current, and future transmission and risk.

We use data from North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services (NCDHHS) curated by The Raleigh News & Observer, WRAL News, and the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy. We are attempting to update our estimates every day and always working to improve our models. Our numbers might look a bit different than those reported in other places (e.g., NCDHHS) because we are attempting to account for factors such as increases in testing, missing reporting data, time lags between infection and reporting, among many others.

This research is partially funded by 1K01AI151197-01, Understanding the Relationship between Herd Immunity and Geographic Scale to Improve Estimates of Localized Infectious Disease Outbreak Risk (Delamater, Principal Investigator)