Please note that all figures below are subject to uncertainty and the assumptions in our model (noted below). They are likely to change as we incorporate more data and update and improve our model.

This page provides information about the current status of COVID-19 vaccination in North Carolina, as well as estimates of future vaccination in the state. The vaccination model uses data from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services (NCDHHS) and the US Department of Health and Human Services (Pfizer vaccine allocation, Moderna vaccine allocation). Our population estimates are drawn from the American Community Survey 2015-19 estimates. If you have questions about the COVID-19 vaccine or the phased approach to vaccination in North Carolina, please see NCDHHS’ COVID-19 Vaccine Information website.

Detailed Methods

The vaccination model uses observed weekly data to estimate the daily number of first and second doses administered from December 14th, 2020 (the first day of reported vaccination in North Carolina) to February 8th, 2021 (the first day we began collecting daily updates). After February 8th, the daily number of doses administered are estimated by subtracting the cumulative totals from the prior day’s cumulative total. These data only include vaccinations by NC providers; to incorporate vaccinations administered via the Federal Long-Term Care Program, we calculate a multiplier by summing the total number of 2nd doses administered by both programs and dividing by the total number of doses administered by only NC providers.1

To estimate the pace of future vaccination (the number of daily doses administered), we calculate the most recent 14-day average. This is a somewhat conservative approach and will not be affected by day-to-day fluctuations. However, it also delays the effects of any short-term changes in allocation or administration, so we will be monitoring whether to manually increase or decrease this value given expected changes in the future (e.g., if the federal government announces a ramp up in production or distribution).

We split the number of people vaccinated with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines based on the doses allocated to NC in the last month as reported by HHS.2

In the forecast portion of our model, people who receive their first dose receive their second dose after the appropriate lag time (21 days for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna). We estimate that 5% of all future recipients of the first dose will not return for the second dose. Further, we do not account for vaccine refusal or a lack of access in the model. Finally, we assume that people receiving their 2nd dose are given priority over people receiving their first dose.3

Our forecast model includes six scenarios. The base scenario is that vaccination continues at the most recent 14-day rate. The additional scenarios each include a 20% increase in the current rate of vaccination (up to 100% or doubling of the current rate).

Scenario Daily Average Completion Date
40% decrease 6,551 January 6, 2024
20% decrease 8,735 June 21, 2023
Current Pace 10,919 February 22, 2023
20% increase 13,102 December 4, 2022
40% increase 15,286 October 8, 2022
60% increase 17,470 August 26, 2022
80% increase 19,654 July 25, 2022
100% increase 21,837 June 26, 2022

Based on data reported through October 14, 2021, we estimate that 5,270,371 (60.14%) of the 8,763,975 North Carolinians age 12 and older are fully vaccinated (have received both doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or the single dose Johnson and Johnson vaccine), and 5,610,092 (64.01%) are at least partially vaccinated (have received at least one dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or the single dose Johnson and Johnson vaccine).

Statewide, the average number of vaccinations being administered daily over the prior 14 days is 10,919. If vaccination continues at this pace, all eligible people in North Carolina (minus an estimated 5% who receive the first dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, but do not follow up and receive the second dose) would be vaccinated (with 2 doses) by February 22, 2023. This forecast is shown in the graph below. In the table on the right, we show the date that vaccination of the eligible population would be complete under increases in the current vaccination rate.

We will continue to update this page and are always working to improve our models and the information we provide. Click here to see our county vaccination maps!

Number of people vaccinated for COVID-19 (observed and forecasted). People vaccinated with the single dose Johnson and Johnson vaccine or with both doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccinae are included in the Fully Vaccinated category. Dashed lines show the expected completion dates under increases in the current vaccination rate.

  1. For example, if 487,702 2nd doses had been administered by NC providers and 54,774 2nd doses had been administered by the Federal LTC Program, the adjustement factor would be 1.112 ((487,702 + 54,774) / 487,702).↩︎

  2. For example, if 600,000 Pfizer doses had been allocated to NC and 400,000 Moderna doses had by allocated, we would split the number of people being vaccinated using relative percentages (60% receive Pfizer and 40% receive Moderna).↩︎

  3. For example, if we estimate that 50,000 (total) people will be vaccinated on July 1, and the number of people who are scheduled to receive their 2nd dose is 30,000 (from the lag calculation), then 20,000 people would receive their first dose that day.↩︎

For questions, email us at nc-covid@unc.edu